Liam’s Hit O’ Miss List: The 90th Oscars

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After six weeks of anxiously waiting, inferring and predicting, the 90th Academy Awards have finally arrived. On March 4, over 6,600 Hollywood voters will speak their minds on which millionaire they believe most deserves a 10-inch golden statue.

This year, the much beloved Oscars ceremony will be hosted yet again by late-night comedian Jimmy Kimmel (expect jokes about last year’s “La La Land”-stunt and a couple hits at Harvey Weinstein), and while many of the contenders seem set in stone (like Best Actor & Actress), some other categories are wide open for speculation.

Which begs the question: who will walk away with the Oscar gold this Sunday? Below, I intend to answer that question and predict each category correctly – including some of the smaller and much less prominent awards.

**Side-note: A pick is according to and established upon what I want to win or believe should win. A prediction, on the other hand, is how I think the Academy will vote. I don’t always personally agree with my predictions!

 

BEST PICTURE

Get Out

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Lady Bird

The Shape of Water

The Post

Phantom Thread

Pick: Get Out

Prediction: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Given how successful it’s been through the awards season (and how relevant the subject matter is in Hollywood), “Three Billboards” is the easy answer to those who are seeking the answer to the Best Picture question. However, with Guillermo del Toro predicted to win Best Director, many people seem to think “The Shape of Water” has it in the bag, but many thought the same about “La La Land” last year, until “Moonlight” prevailed and walked away the winner. Could the same thing happen here with “Get Out?” Don’t anticipate anything, but anything could happen, and I wouldn’t be too upset to see Jordan Peele walk away with Best Picture for his directing and ambiance created.

 

DIRECTING

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Pick: Jordan Peele, Get Out

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Prediction: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Christopher Nolan will be dancing in his seat Sunday night thinking, “OH YES! I FINALLY DID IT! I CONVINCED THE ACADEMY I AM WORTH IT.” While he basks in the good news of his first Oscar nomination, expect Guillermo del Toro–that one director of that weird fish movie–to be on edge. According to die-hard fans and critics, del Toro seems to “infuse all that same care and precision with a lot of big, gooey feeling” — something that did not come across in my viewing of the flick. I would actually rather see underdogs Jordan Peele or Greta Gerwig walk away with the award this time for their phenomenal ability to connect deeply with their audience through their work. (Especially Greta’s – who’s coming-of-age film centers around a highschool senior girl dealing with the conflicting aspects of love, college and family.)

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Meryl Streep, The Post

Pick: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Prediction: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Back when the nominations first came out, it was Sally Hawkins many news outlets were highlighting to possibly win Best Actress. That was until mid-January, when Frances McDormand’s name began popping up anywhere you looked, and for good reason. McDormand’s portrayal (almost symbolic of today’s #MeToo culture) in “Three Billboards” is fierce when it needs to be fierce and sad when it needs to be sad – she makes her audience feel, so much so, the whole movie almost feels real, it’s so alive. I’m calling it now that the nameplate is resting backstage with FRANCES on it, this exact moment.

 

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Pick: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Prediction: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Gary Oldman, need I say much more. His role as the one and only Winston Churchill was brought to back to life by Oldman’s vigorous and endeavouring acting ethic. Not to mention, the Oscars always love to see a revered acting veteran pull the nine-yards, undergo a major transformation, carry that same attitude of that historical figure and all the while never lose their own unique charm. Which almost defines Oldman’s performance in “The Darkest Hour” in every single manner. There seems to be no sign of slowing him down (especially for the amount of precursor awards this season).

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Pick: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Prediction: Allison Janney, I, Tonya

There was a time when people actually said that Laurie Metcalf and Octavia Spencer were the two leading contenders for this category with their thrilling and heart wrenching performances in “Lady Bird” and “The Shape of Water,” respectively. That is, until Allison Janney’s name began popping up at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA and most importantly the SAG awards — the awards show that goes on to predict Best Actors and Actresses 75% of the time. It would be difficult to see Janney lose such an unbreakable streak at tonight’s Oscars – though, I must say, it would be great to see Laurie Metcalf win for her stellar role as loving mother to an unwilling daughter.

 

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Pick: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Prediction: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

After I saw “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” two thoughts immediately ran through my head. First, how is this not based a true story? It seems so real. Secondly, how did they get such great actors and actresses? I mean, look at these contenders: three nominations for Oscar acting awards, and predicted to win two of them. Rockwell’s performance is not any different, his character (who goes through an unbelievable character arc) seems to be perfect for today’s changing climate. It’s almost certain that Sam Rockwell will be voted for — with the amount of awards he’s won this past season, it will be Rockwell’s trophy to lose.

 

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water

Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Pick: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Get Out

Prediction: Get Out

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name

Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist

Scott Frank and James Mangold and Michael Green, Logan

Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game

Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, Mudbound

Pick: Logan

Prediction: Call Me By Your Name

 

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman

The Insult

Loveless

On Body and Soul

The Square

Pick: A Fantastic Woman

Prediction: A Fantastic Woman

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

The Boss Baby

The Breadwinner

Coco

Ferdinand

Loving Vincent

Pick: Coco

Prediction: Coco

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

Faces Places

Icarus

Last Men in Aleppo

Strong Island

Pick: Faces Places

Prediction: Faces Places

 

BEST SHORT-SUBJECT DOCUMENTARY

Edith + Eddie

Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405

Heroin(e)

Knife Skills

Traffic Stop

Pick: Heroin(e)

Prediction: Heroin(e)

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Mighty River,” Mudbound

“Mystery of Love,” Call Me by Your Name

“Remember Me,” Coco

“Stand Up for Something,” Marshall

“This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman

Pick: “Remember Me,” Coco

Prediction: “Remember Me,” Coco

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Mudbound

The Shape of Water

Pick: Blade Runner 2049

Prediction: Blade Runner 2049

 

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Pick: Blade Runner 2049

Prediction: The Shape of Water

 

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast

Darkest Hour

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Victoria & Abdul

Pick: Phantom Thread

Prediction: Phantom Thread

 

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING

Baby Driver

Dunkirk

I, Tonya

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Pick: Baby Driver

Prediction: Dunkirk

 

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Darkest Hour

Victoria & Abdul

Wonder

Pick: Darkest Hour

Prediction: Darkest Hour

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dunkirk

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Pick: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Prediction: The Shape of Water

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Dear Basketball

Garden Party

Lou

Negative Space

Revolting Rhymes

Pick: Lou

Prediction: Dear Basketball

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

DeKalb Elementary

The Eleven O’Clock

My Nephew Emmett

The Silent Child

Watu Wote/All of Us

Pick: DeKalb Elementary

Prediction: DeKalb Elementary

 

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Pick: Baby Driver

Prediction: Dunkirk

 

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Pick: Baby Driver

Prediction: Baby Driver

 

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2

Kong: Skull Island

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

War for the Planet of the Apes

Pick: Blade Runner 2049

Prediction: War for the Planet of the Apes